ANALYSIS
After 2022: what Europe chose and what it cost
17 October 2026 — Europe
Series “Europe's choices” · 5 of 6
In brief
- Since 2022 the Union has adopted 22 sanctions packages against Russia; the latest, on 12 October 2026, targets 1,569 companies and executives in the military industry.
- In 2025, with US aid almost gone, Europe gave Kyiv about €29 billion in weapons and €39 billion in financial and humanitarian aid. For 2026-27 there is an EU loan of €90 billion.
- The costs: inflation at 10.6% in October 2022, €540 billion in public support against high energy prices, output of Germany's energy-intensive industries down 15.2%.
- Meanwhile Europe accepted US tariffs of 15% on its goods, while removing its own on US industrial goods.
- The peace talks are led by the United States. The Europeans are consulted but do not lead; Moscow, for now, does not want to negotiate. At the summit of 16 October 2026 the 27 criticised Washington for halting sanctions on Russian diesel, but proposed no peace initiative of their own.
- Kyiv received tens of billions while a corruption scandal worth about $100 million broke out in the energy sector.
Why this piece
The previous piece stopped on 24 February 2022. Here we look at what Europe decided after the invasion, what it cost and what weight it gave Europe. The UN Charter prohibits aggression, recognises the right to self-defence and asks everyone, before anything else, to seek a peaceful settlement. The question is which of these paths Europe chose, and who reaps the benefits.
The choices, one by one
| Choice | What | Who opted out |
|---|---|---|
| Sanctions | 22 packages; almost 4,600 individuals and entities listed | nobody: every package requires unanimity |
| Money for Kyiv | EU loan of €90 billion for 2026-27, financed with joint debt | Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic do not take part |
| Rearmament | NATO target of 5% of GDP by 2035; SAFE EU loans of €150 billion | Spain stops at 2.1%; Germany does not use SAFE |
| Refugees | temporary protection for 4.43 million Ukrainians, extended to March 2028 | nobody |
| Ukraine's accession | four of six negotiating clusters opened between June and October 2026 | Hungary's new government wants a referendum |
| Tariffs with the US | 15% on European goods; zero tariffs on US industrial goods | — |
Sources: Council of the EU, 12/10/2026; AP, 19/12/2025; Eunews, 23/6/2025; Grosswald, SAFE tracker; Eurostat via Eunews, 10/9/2026; Euronews, 10/7/2026; European Council, conclusions of 16/10/2026.
The diplomacy that was missed
In the first weeks of the war there were real negotiations. At the end of March 2022, in Istanbul, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations agreed a communiqué: Ukrainian neutrality, with no nuclear weapons or foreign bases, in exchange for security guarantees from the great powers. By May the talks had broken off. Why is still debated: the discovery of the killings of civilians in Bucha weighed, as did Western reluctance to give binding guarantees and Russian demands on Crimea and on Ukraine's armed forces. The claim that the talks were stopped by British prime minister Johnson, who visited Kyiv on 9 April, is made by some and disputed by others (Foreign Affairs, 16/4/2024; The National Interest).
After 2022 the Union never opened a negotiating channel of its own with Moscow. Today the door is closed from the other side too: the Kremlin rejects a meeting between Putin and Zelensky outside Moscow (House of Commons Library, 15/9/2026) and, according to a source close to the Kremlin quoted by Reuters, Putin will return to talks only after taking the rest of Donbas (Meduza, 14/10/2026).
Who pays
In 2025 Washington cut its aid to Kyiv by up to 99%. Europe filled the gap: about €29 billion in weapons, two thirds more than the 2022-2024 average, and €39 billion in financial and humanitarian aid, almost all from EU institutions. The burden is not evenly shared: northern countries gave a third of Europe's military aid with 8% of the donors' GDP; southern countries, Italy included, gave 3% with 19% of GDP (Kiel Institute via Euronews, 11/2/2026).
Part of that money goes back to the United States. Through the NATO mechanism called PURL, European governments buy American weapons for Ukraine: more than 90% of what passes through this channel comes from US stocks (Kiel Institute, 13/8/2026).
On frozen Russian assets the Union split. About €210 billion is blocked in Europe, most of it at Euroclear in Brussels. The plan to use it for a "reparations loan" collapsed in December 2025 because of opposition from Belgium, which feared lawsuits and risks for Euroclear. In its place came the €90 billion loan backed by joint debt: European taxpayers pay for it, while the assets stay frozen (AP, cited above).
Where the money goes
On 22 July 2025 Ukraine's parliament passed, and Zelensky signed, a law stripping the two anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAPO, of their independence. After days of street protests and European criticism, the law was reversed on 31 July (Euromaidan Press, 31/7/2025).
In November NABU made public Operation Midas: kickbacks of up to 15% on contracts at Energoatom, the state nuclear company, and about $100 million laundered. According to investigators, the scheme was run by Timur Mindich, a business partner of Zelensky, who fled before the charges. The justice and energy ministers were dismissed; on 28 November the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, resigned on the day his home was searched (Euromaidan Press, 28/11/2025). The scandal came out because those agencies, saved by the street, did their job.
What it cost at home
- Prices. In October 2022 euro area inflation hit 10.6%, a record, driven by energy (Eurostat).
- Support against high energy prices. Between September 2021 and June 2023 EU governments allocated €540 billion, €158 billion from Germany alone, mostly through across-the-board cuts in excise duties and VAT (Bruegel).
- Sanctions and citizens. Economic sanctions also hit people who bear no blame: a report presented to the UN documents how banks and companies, afraid of making mistakes, also block permitted trade, including medicines and humanitarian goods (UN, note by the Secretary-General). Russia's war economy, meanwhile, has adapted: it grew by 4.9% in 2024 and by 1% in 2025 (Trading Economics, 6/2/2026).
- Industry. In Germany, output of energy-intensive industries fell by 15.2% between February 2022 and March 2026 (Destatis via Clean Energy Wire, 15/5/2026).
The tariff deal
In July 2025, in Scotland, the Union accepted a US tariff of 15% on most of its goods. In return it removed its tariffs on US industrial goods and promised energy purchases worth $750 billion over three years (Reuters via BBC Bermuda, 28/7/2025). In February 2026 the US Supreme Court struck down the legal instrument Trump had used for the tariffs, and the European Parliament suspended its examination of the deal (European Parliament, 23/2/2026). In June it approved it anyway, with 440 votes in favour, adding clauses to suspend it if Washington does not keep its side of the bargain (Confectionery Production, 16/6/2026).
At the peace table
On 15 August 2025 Trump met Putin in Alaska, without Europeans. Three days later von der Leyen, Macron, Merz, Meloni, Stubb and Britain's Starmer flew to Washington to stand beside Zelensky (Il Sole 24 Ore). The pattern has stayed the same: the US envoys Witkoff and Kushner negotiate with Moscow and with Kyiv; at the Kyiv talks of 6 September 2026 the national security advisers of France, the United Kingdom and Germany took part in only one session (House of Commons Library, 15/9/2026).
On 9 October Trump announced a deal with Moscow for the sale of more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel; European governments criticised it. The same day Putin told him that an immediate resumption of negotiations was unlikely (Al Jazeera, 10/10/2026).
According to a Washington Post columnist, citing an anonymous US official and an anonymous European diplomat, the United States and the Europeans are preparing a joint plan: a truce along the front line, security guarantees for Kyiv, reconstruction funds and a large energy deal that would bring cheap Russian oil and gas back to Europe, with a timetable for lifting sanctions (Meduza, 14/10/2026). No government has confirmed it.
The European Council of 15 and 16 October reaffirmed that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine" and called on Russia to agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. It "regretted" the temporary lifting by the United States of sanctions on Russian diesel and promised new sanctions. The conclusions contain no European negotiating initiative (European Council, conclusions of 16/10/2026). Zelensky asked the Union for an extra €70 billion for 2027; leaders asked the Commission to set out options, and von der Leyen said Europe cannot cover it alone (Euronews, 16/10/2026).
What worked
Ukraine has not fallen, and since 2025 it has held mainly thanks to European money. Sanctions have been adopted unanimously 22 times. More than four million refugees have received protection. And after the 2020 recovery fund, joint debt was used again, this time to support a country at war.
Our assessment
This section expresses the site's position. It is separate from the facts set out above.
Condemning the invasion was a duty, and it remains one. But for us diplomacy comes first, always: it is the first duty the UN Charter imposes on anyone in a dispute. Europe put it last. It let the 2022 attempts drop, never opened a channel of its own with Moscow and handed the negotiation to Washington. Moscow, for its part, now refuses to negotiate until it has taken Donbas: the duty applies to it too. The conclusions of the 16 October summit confirm it: a ceasefire demanded of Russia, new sanctions, new money, and no European proposal for reaching a negotiation.
Instead of diplomacy, the Union chose sanctions and aid. Economic sanctions also hit people who bear no blame: Russian citizens who did not decide the war, and European citizens who paid more for energy. Meanwhile Russia's war economy has adapted. The aid went to a government whose scandals came to light only thanks to bodies that the same government had tried to weaken. So Europe pays, but others decide.
The plan being discussed in these weeks shows it clearly. If it were confirmed, Russian gas would return to Europe, but on terms negotiated in Washington: the same supplies that Europe gave up on principle would come back inside a deal it did not write.
What to watch
- The Commission's options for covering the €70 billion Kyiv has requested for 2027.
- The three-way talks between the United States, Ukraine and Russia, and whether the plan reported by the Washington Post is confirmed.
- The opening of the two remaining clusters in Ukraine's accession negotiations.
- NABU's investigation into Operation Midas and the possible extradition of Mindich.
Sources: Council of the EU, 12/10/2026 · AP, 19/12/2025 · Eunews, 23/6/2025 · Grosswald, SAFE tracker · Eurostat via Eunews, 10/9/2026 · Euronews, 10/7/2026 · European Council, conclusions of 16/10/2026 · Foreign Affairs, 16/4/2024 · The National Interest · House of Commons Library, 15/9/2026 · Meduza, 14/10/2026 · Kiel Institute via Euronews, 11/2/2026 · Kiel Institute, 13/8/2026 · Euromaidan Press, 31/7/2025 · Euromaidan Press, 28/11/2025 · Eurostat · Bruegel · UN, note by the Secretary-General · Trading Economics, 6/2/2026 · Destatis via Clean Energy Wire, 15/5/2026 · Reuters via BBC Bermuda, 28/7/2025 · European Parliament, 23/2/2026 · Confectionery Production, 16/6/2026 · Il Sole 24 Ore · Al Jazeera, 10/10/2026 · Euronews, 16/10/2026
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