ANALYSIS
Why Ukraine and not Sudan
18 October 2026 — Europe
Series “Europe's choices” · 6 of 6
In brief
- To help Ukraine, Europe has spent more than €200 billion since 2022, in weapons, money for the state and humanitarian aid. For Sudan, the help is humanitarian only.
- On humanitarian aid alone, Ukraine is not favoured: in 2026 it receives about €20 per person in need, the Palestinian territories about €60, Sudan and Yemen about €5.
- The difference lies in political choices: only in Ukraine has Europe sent weapons, paid the state budget and listed about 4,600 individuals and entities.
- Ukraine matters for concrete reasons: it borders four EU countries, used to export 10% of the world's wheat and hosts Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
- For Washington the aim was stated openly: "We want to see Russia weakened."
The question
Why Ukraine and not Sudan? In the previous pieces of this series we saw how much Europe has spent after 2022 and how the war came about. Here we put Ukraine next to three other conflicts, Sudan, Gaza and the West Bank, and Yemen, and measure them with the same yardstick. First, though, let us see what Ukraine is worth, and to whom.
What Ukraine is worth
To Europe. Ukraine borders four EU countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Since the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, European security has rested on the principle that borders are not changed by force. Before the war Ukraine exported about 10% of the wheat and 15% of the maize sold worldwide (farmdoc daily, University of Illinois, 24/2/2023). On its territory stands Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, with six reactors: it is in Russian hands and has produced no electricity since 11 September 2022 (Interfax, 17/4/2026).
To Russia. In 1997 Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former US national security adviser, wrote in The Grand Chessboard that without Ukraine Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Crimea hosts the base of Russia's Black Sea fleet. Moscow still demands that the "root causes" of the conflict be addressed: NATO enlargement and the protection of Russian speakers (House of Commons Library, 15/9/2026).
To the United States. On 25 April 2022, in Poland, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said: "We want to see Russia weakened to a degree that it can't do the kinds of things it has done in invading Ukraine" (Axios, 25/4/2022). On 30 April 2025 Washington and Kyiv signed a minerals deal: a joint fund receives half of the revenue from new mining, oil and gas projects, and future US military aid counts as the US share (CSIS, 1/5/2025). The previous pieces showed the rest: American gas and weapons sold to Europe.
The same yardstick: humanitarian aid
To compare conflicts we need consistent numbers: same source, same year, same unit. The first table compares the needs estimated by the UN for 2026 with the humanitarian aid allocated by the European Commission in the same year.
| Ukraine | Sudan | Palestinian territories | Yemen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People in need of aid in 2026 | 10.8 million | 33.7 million | 3.6 million | 23.1 million |
| European Commission humanitarian aid in 2026 | €220 million | €162 million | over €217 million | €120 million (2025) |
| Euros per person in need | about €20 | about €5 | about €60 | about €5 |
Sources: UN, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, for Sudan and for the other countries as reported by Concern; European Commission country pages for Ukraine, Sudan, Palestine and Yemen. For Yemen the 2026 figure has not yet been published; we use 2025. For Sudan we count only aid inside the country, not aid for refugees in neighbouring countries.
On humanitarian aid, then, Europe does not favour Ukraine. Those who receive least, by far, are Sudan and Yemen: the two crises with the most people in need.
The same yardstick: political choices
The difference lies in what Europe does beyond humanitarian aid.
| Ukraine | Sudan | Israel and Palestine | Yemen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapons | €75.2 billion supplied by the EU and member states | EU arms embargo since 1994 | member states sell to Israel | member states have sold to the Saudi-led coalition |
| Money for the state | €43.3 billion in financial assistance, plus the €90 billion loan for 2026-27 | none | up to €1.6 billion for the Palestinian Authority for 2025-27 | about €500 million in development aid since 2015 |
| EU sanctions | about 4,600 Russian individuals and entities | 18 individuals and 8 entities, from both sides | 21 violent settlers and organisations; no measures against the Israeli government; Hamas on the EU list of terrorist organisations | the Houthis, under a UN embargo adopted by the EU |
Sources: Ukraine, Eunews on European Parliament data, 1/6/2026, AP, 19/12/2025, Council of the EU, 12/10/2026; Sudan, SIPRI and Dabanga, 29/1/2026; Israel and Palestine, The New Arab, 1/10/2025, European Commission, 14/4/2025, J Street, June 2026, Lovguiden, 30/7/2026; Yemen, Reuters via The New Arab and Council of the EU, 14/3/2022.
Two examples give the measure. Germany had authorised about €251 million in military exports to Israel between early 2024 and mid-2025; in August 2025 it suspended them for a few weeks, then resumed them (The New Arab, cited above). In 2023 Italy lifted the embargo on selling bombs and missiles to Saudi Arabia that it had introduced over the war in Yemen (Reuters, cited above).
The European Council of 15 and 16 October 2026 shows the same pattern in words. On Ukraine, the conclusions call for new sanctions against Russia and release €6.6 billion for weapons. On Gaza and the West Bank, they condemn settlement expansion and settler violence, warn companies against bidding for construction in the E1 area and call for Hamas to disarm, but provide for no measures against the Israeli government. On Yemen, they condemn the Houthis' attacks on Saudi Arabia and express solidarity with Riyadh, saying nothing about the Saudi-led coalition. Sudan is never mentioned (European Council, conclusions of 16/10/2026).
The dead
Death tolls are not in the tables because the sources measure different things. We give them one by one, saying what they count.
- Ukraine: at least 16,431 civilians killed between February 2022 and June 2026, counting only cases verified one by one by the UN (UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, 14/7/2026). According to the monitor ACLED, in 2025 alone the war killed about 78,000 people, soldiers and civilians (Newsweek, on ACLED data).
- Sudan: about 80,000 deaths estimated in 2025 alone, according to a model by researchers at Uppsala and at PRIO in Oslo (The Conversation via Polity, 7/10/2026).
- Gaza: 73,001 dead since 7 October 2023 according to Gaza's health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants; UN agencies consider its records generally reliable (AP via PBS, 14/6/2026).
- Yemen: 377,000 deaths estimated by UNDP by the end of 2021, including those from hunger and disease (Al Jazeera, 23/11/2021).
What worked
European humanitarian aid does not follow alliances: per person, the Palestinian territories receive more than Ukraine. In April 2026, in Berlin, the EU and member states pledged more than €812 million for Sudan and its refugees (European Commission, 15/4/2026). And in Sudan, European sanctions hit both sides, the army and the Rapid Support Forces.
Our assessment
This section expresses the site's position. It is separate from the facts set out above.
The principles are not false: the UN Charter applies in Ukraine as in Sudan, in Gaza as in Yemen. But Europe enforces them with all its strength only where they coincide with its own interests and with Washington's. In Ukraine they coincide: the Union's borders, grain, nuclear power, a rival to weaken. In Sudan and Yemen they do not, and there Europe sends aid, not policy. In Gaza the interests pull the other way, and European weapons keep reaching one of the parties.
International law is not an ideology to be used where it suits. Either it applies to everyone, or it becomes a flag. This site exists to demand that it apply to everyone: the same sanctions for whoever bombs civilians, whoever they are; the same diplomatic effort for every war; the same halt to arms for whoever violates humanitarian law.
What to watch
- The UN Global Humanitarian Overview 2027, in December, and how much of it Europe will fund.
- New entries in the EU sanctions regime on Sudan, extended on 9 October 2026 until 10 October 2027 with no additions (Lovguiden, 9/10/2026).
- The proposal to suspend the trade part of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Sources: farmdoc daily, University of Illinois, 24/2/2023 · Interfax, 17/4/2026 · House of Commons Library, 15/9/2026 · Axios, 25/4/2022 · CSIS, 1/5/2025 · Sudan · Concern · Ukraine · Sudan · Palestine · Yemen · Eunews on European Parliament data, 1/6/2026 · AP, 19/12/2025 · Council of the EU, 12/10/2026 · SIPRI · Dabanga, 29/1/2026 · The New Arab, 1/10/2025 · European Commission, 14/4/2025 · J Street, June 2026 · Lovguiden, 30/7/2026 · Reuters via The New Arab · Council of the EU, 14/3/2022 · European Council, conclusions of 16/10/2026 · UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, 14/7/2026 · Newsweek, on ACLED data · The Conversation via Polity, 7/10/2026 · AP via PBS, 14/6/2026 · Al Jazeera, 23/11/2021 · European Commission, 15/4/2026 · Lovguiden, 9/10/2026
Related pieces: After 2022: what Europe chose and what it cost · Sudan, war by remote: who supplies, who pilots, who should stop it · Airport for airport: how the war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia came back, and what each side wants