ANALYSIS

Immigration: the doors Europe closes and the ones it opens

18 October 2026 — European Union

Series “Europe's choices” · 9 of 9

The question

At the European Council of 15 and 16 October immigration divided governments more than any other issue. The target was Spain, which is granting a residence permit to about 600,000 people already living in the country without papers.

Denmark, Italy and Poland asked for the conclusions to say that "pull factors" must be reduced. It is a phrase that comes up often: it means anything that, according to those who use it, draws people to a particular country, such as the hope of being regularised. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen put it like this: "You arrive in a country illegally, and suddenly you can obtain permission to stay there legally" (EU Perspectives, 16/10/2026). Madrid replies that regularising people who already work off the books brings work and contributions into the open, and moves no one to other countries. French President Emmanuel Macron closed the discussion like this: when everyone goes back to national solutions, "we are ineffective" (Euronews, 16/10/2026).

The request did not pass. Regularisation remains a choice for each government. The conclusions only ask the Commission to prepare rules for emergencies, including cases where a hostile state pushes migrants towards Europe's borders to put them under pressure, as in Ceuta at the end of July (European Council, 16/10/2026; on Ceuta, our piece). The issue returns in December.

Fewer arrivals, more deaths

Irregular arrivals in the EU fell by more than a third in the first seven months of 2026; on the Central Mediterranean route, the one to Italy, they more than halved (Frontex, August 2026).

Deaths, however, are not falling. On the same route the dead and missing rose from 844 to 996 compared with last year (UNRIC, on IOM data, 17/9/2026). In proportion to arrivals, by our calculation, that is almost three times as many. Fewer people arrive, but for those who set out the journey has become far more dangerous. And according to the IOM, the UN migration agency, "nearly every death and disappearance at sea is preventable".

The EU's choices

Common rules, little solidarity. Since 12 June the Pact on Migration and Asylum has been in force (our piece). For the first time all 27 follow the same rules to examine asylum applications. The Pact also provided for solidarity: the less exposed countries were to take in some of the applicants arriving in Italy, Greece or Spain, or pay. For 2026 states pledged less than half of the places foreseen; Hungary and Slovakia none (Euronews, 10/6/2026). Those on the front line remain, in practice, alone.

Returns, including abroad. The new return regulation, agreed in June, allows states to detain for up to two years people who must leave Europe and to send them to "return hubs" in countries outside the EU (Council of the EU, 1/6/2026). The problem it wants to solve is real: today less than a third of those ordered to leave actually do so.

Paying those who stop departures. The EU has given Tunisia more than €100 million to stop boats and control its borders. Humanitarian and human rights organisations report violent interceptions, torture and people abandoned in the desert at the border (Human Rights Watch, 16/7/2026). Departures fall, but the human cost moves to where Europe does not look.

And meanwhile it looks for workers. Europe is ageing and by 2050 most of its countries will have fewer people of working age (EUobserver, on Eurostat data). So the Italian government, one of the toughest on irregular arrivals, has planned almost 500,000 entries of foreign workers over three years, for the "indispensable labour" that companies cannot find (Sky TG24, 30/6/2025). Spain has chosen to give papers to those already in the country (Euro Weekly News, 17/10/2026). They are two different roads towards the same need.

Fear and security in Italy

In Italy immigration is discussed mainly as a security problem, and fear has grown fast: in four years security has risen from tenth to second place among Italians' concerns. But fear also depends on how people vote: irregular immigration worries more than four in ten centre-right voters and just over one in ten on the centre-left (Open, on an Ipsos Doxa poll, 11/10/2026). The same reality, seen from two camps, produces different fears.

The data say two things, and they must be held together. Reported crimes fell in 2025. And foreigners are more than a third of the people reported or arrested, while being less than a tenth of the population: the disproportion exists, especially for theft, robbery and drug dealing (Open, on Interior Ministry data, 12/10/2026).

What explains it? Not origin, but condition. In 2007 Italy allocated work permits through a "click day": those who sent the application first got one, those who arrived a few minutes later did not. Two groups of people identical in everything but luck. Economist Paolo Pinotti followed them: those who had obtained the permit had, a year later, committed less than half as many serious crimes as the others (Cato Institute, summary of the study). With papers you can work legally, rent a home, have something to lose if you go wrong. Without them, there is undeclared work and often the street.

And undocumented people do not only come by sea: laws produce them too. In Italy seven asylum applications out of ten are rejected (Il Fatto Quotidiano, on ISMU data, 26/2/2026). Those who are refused, but not returned because their country will not take them back, stay here without papers. The unease many see in some neighbourhoods of big cities also stems from this: people who can neither work legally nor be sent home.

The Albania model

The answer governments rely on most is return centres, including abroad. The model is Italian. The two centres built in Albania were meant to examine asylum applications quickly; judges blocked the detentions and since March 2025 one of the two has become a return centre (Il Post, 11/6/2026).

The results are far from the promises. The government expected about 3,000 people a month; about 500 have passed through in total, at a cost of more than €670 million (Euronews, 26/8/2026). Returns, according to associations, number about ninety, and all took place after the people had been brought back to Italy; the Interior Ministry does not publish its figures. The reason is the same as for the centres in Italy: to return someone, their country must agree to take them back, and with many countries there are no agreements.

The EU Court of Justice has yet to decide whether the model complies with EU law (our piece). But Europe has already decided to follow it. "Italy has shown the way and today Europe is following it," said Giorgia Meloni (Avvenire, 11/6/2026). Denmark, Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Greece want the first transfers to a country outside the EU in 2027; the press points to Uganda and Rwanda (Euronews, 4/9/2026). The United Kingdom already tried with Rwanda: the plan was abandoned after four voluntary departures.

The same yardstick

The summit conclusions also recall the extension until 2028 of temporary protection for the 4.4 million Ukrainians living in the EU (Euromaidan Press, on Eurostat data, 12/8/2026). It is a tool that had existed since 2001 and had never been used, not even for Syrians in 2015 (Verfassungsblog, 10/3/2022). It works simply: those fleeing a given war immediately receive the right to live, work and study in the EU, without asylum applications one by one. Those fleeing Sudan, by contrast, find the desert, the sea and interceptions paid for by Europe (our piece on Ukraine and Sudan).

What worked

Temporary protection gave millions of Ukrainians a regular life within days. The Pact provided common rules where before each country went its own way. And legal channels, Italian and Spanish, recognise a fact the debate often hides: Europe's economy needs these people.

Our assessment

This section expresses the site's position. It is separate from the facts set out above.

Immigration is used as a political lever. The fear is real and must be respected: people living in a run-down neighbourhood need answers, not lectures. But the data say that what produces insecurity is not origin, it is irregular status. Laws that multiply the number of undocumented people without managing to return them feed the very problem they promise to solve.

The Albania model shows it: the crux of returns is not where a person is held, but whether their country agrees to take them back. A centre across the Adriatic costs more and does not return more people. That Europe wants to copy it even before the ruling shows how much the message counts for more than the result. Meanwhile arrivals fall, and the price is paid by those who die at sea, far from the cameras.

And it is inconsistent to accuse those who give papers to people already working of "attracting migrants", while looking for half a million workers abroad. With Ukrainians Europe showed that welcoming people well is possible. Asking for the same yardstick for those fleeing other wars means applying the rules Europe has given itself: outsourcing does not erase the obligation, it only moves it to where it is harder to enforce (our manifesto).

What to watch

• The December summit and the emergency rules the Commission will present by the end of the year.
• The Court of Justice ruling on the Albania centres and the first agreement for a return hub outside the EU.
• The figures on deaths at sea at the end of the year.
• Crime figures for 2026, ahead of the Italian election campaign.

Sources: EU Perspectives, 16/10/2026 · Euronews, 16/10/2026 · European Council, 16/10/2026 · Frontex, August 2026 · UNRIC, on IOM data, 17/9/2026 · Euronews, 10/6/2026 · Council of the EU, 1/6/2026 · Human Rights Watch, 16/7/2026 · EUobserver, on Eurostat data · Sky TG24, 30/6/2025 · Euro Weekly News, 17/10/2026 · Open, on an Ipsos Doxa poll, 11/10/2026 · Open, on Interior Ministry data, 12/10/2026 · Cato Institute, summary of the study · Il Fatto Quotidiano, on ISMU data, 26/2/2026 · Il Post, 11/6/2026 · Euronews, 26/8/2026 · Avvenire, 11/6/2026 · Euronews, 4/9/2026 · Euromaidan Press, on Eurostat data, 12/8/2026 · Verfassungsblog, 10/3/2022

Related pieces: The new EU Asylum Pact enters into force · Albania: the CJEU opinion — "legitimate, but rights must be guaranteed" · Why Ukraine and not Sudan

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