ANALYSIS
A deal that worked, torn up anyway
27 July 2026 — Iran / United States
The context
Sometimes a conflict isn’t born from a lack of diplomacy, but from its unilateral interruption — even when it was working. The path that led the United States and Israel to bomb Iran directly twice in under a year, killing its Supreme Leader, begins with a deal the international watchdog certified as being respected.
The deal (2015-2018)
In July 2015 Iran, the United States, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): strict limits on Iranian uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions, under an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection regime Washington itself called “unprecedented.” In 2017, all four IAEA quarterly reports certified full Iranian compliance. On 8 May 2018 President Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal, publicly calling it “a horrible, one-sided deal.” A detail often omitted but verifiable: the White House withdrawal memorandum identified no Iranian violation occurring during the Trump administration — only alleged 2016 violations, under Obama, concerning heavy-water stockpile limits. US sanctions were reimposed.
The predictable consequence (2018-2024)
Stripped of the deal’s benefits but no longer bound by its limits, Iran progressively rolled back its commitments: increasing enrichment, restricting inspector access. Breakout time — how long it would take to accumulate enough material for a device — fell from over a year to 3-4 months, per Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation estimates. In 2020 a US drone killed General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. After 7 October 2023 and the Gaza war, Iran and Israel exchanged direct strikes twice in 2024.
The 12-Day War (June 2025)
On 13 June 2025 Israel launched surprise strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, killing senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. On 22 June the United States struck Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan directly with bunker-buster bombs — Trump called it a “limited, one-off” mission. A ceasefire followed on 24 June. Estimates of the actual damage diverge sharply by source: the US says “destruction”; a leaked US intelligence report and Israeli intelligence describe serious but not conclusive damage, with the program delayed by months, not years.
The failed talks and the second war (2026)
In February 2026 indirect Oman-mediated talks on a new deal failed — Iran’s foreign minister signalled willingness to make concessions, but Trump said he was “not thrilled” with the outcome. On 28 February 2026 the US and Israel launched a new large-scale offensive — nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours — this time explicitly declaring the goal of regime change. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strike; his son succeeded him. A conditional ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, took effect on 8 April 2026.
The symmetry test
This is where the standard applied elsewhere in this series becomes harder to apply, not easier. If the yardstick for judging the Russian invasion of Ukraine is “no ongoing armed attack to repel = not legitimate self-defence under Article 51,” the same yardstick applied to the 2025 and 2026 US/Israeli strikes — against a nuclear program not yet weaponised, with no ongoing Iranian armed attack — leads to the same legal conclusion. The doctrine of “anticipatory self-defence” against a future threat is not settled international law. Killing a head of state and explicitly declaring a regime-change objective are, as a matter of principle, hard to distinguish from conduct the West condemns without hesitation when attributed to other actors.
Editorial judgment
What links this case to the previous one in the series is not a symmetry of blame — the facts and violations remain distinct — but the mechanism: a working deal, unilaterally broken by one of its own parties; a self-feeding escalation because each side reads the other’s move as an existential threat; and a diplomatic window (the Oman talks of February 2026) left to lapse shortly before armed force took its place.
Fonti: Britannica — "12-Day War" (June 2025) · Britannica — "2026 Iran war" · House of Commons Library — "Israel/US-Iran conflict 2026" · CFR, Global Conflict Tracker — "Iran's War With Israel and the United States" · Congressional Research Service — "U.S. Conflict with Iran" (26 March 2026) · Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation — "The Iran Deal, Then and Now"