How a war is built
Wars do not break out suddenly: they are built step by step, through broken promises, torn-up agreements, diplomatic windows left to close. Three conflicts traced from the beginning, and a forecasting exercise on how Europe could end up at war without having chosen it.
From the 1990 verbal assurances to the 2014 Nuland-Pyatt call, from Putin's 2021 essay to the diplomatic window lost in Istanbul: how an escalation is built, step by step.
In 2018 Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA while the IAEA certified Iran was compliant. Seven years later: two wars and the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. How a working deal produced the escalation it was meant to prevent.
From the 2011 uprising to a proxy war, from the silent 2017 abandonment to the sudden collapse of December 2024: how a conflict can reopen not through new aggression, but simply because attention shifted elsewhere.
A declared foresight exercise, built on real incidents: drone incursions on NATO's eastern flank, British bases hit in Iran, and what diplomacy should do to contain the risk before it's too late.