NEWS
Taiwan, the next test: deterrence wavers and the precedent emboldens Beijing
May–June 2026 — Taipei · Washington · Beijing
The facts
After the May 2026 Beijing summit, the United States paused a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan (missiles and air-defence systems), which Trump called a "negotiating chip"; flying home he said he did not want "a war 9,500 miles away", after Xi warned that mishandling Taiwan could lead to "conflict". Meanwhile Kuomintang leader Cheng Li-wun — the first KMT chief to visit Beijing in a decade, after meeting Xi in April and a March Foreign Affairs essay ("Taiwan does not have to choose") — is touring the US promoting US–China "reconciliation". (Cheng holds pro-unification views and has called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a defensive war provoked by NATO: this is not a simple victim narrative.)
Legal comment
The rule that protects Taiwan is the same that protected Venezuela: the prohibition on the use of force (Article 2(4) of the UN Charter), a peremptory (jus cogens) norm. When that rule is suspended for one power — the US capturing a head of state in Caracas — it weakens for all, and Beijing takes note. A forcible "reunification" would be aggression by the identical standard: the precedent makes it more thinkable, and wavering Western deterrence makes it more feasible.
Implications
Taiwan is the live test of consistency. Whoever condemned the aggression against Ukraine but excused — or applauded — the capture of Maduro has already taught Beijing the lesson: for the powerful, the rule is optional. The only coherent position is identical for all — aggression is illegitimate whoever commits it, against Caracas as against Taipei. This is not support for any Taiwanese faction: it is fidelity to the rule that alone keeps every small nation from becoming prey.
Sources: Foreign Policy · CNN · Axios · PBS/AP · The Diplomat · SCMP
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